Well, this is awkward.
The Lion In Winter – remember him? That horse everyone was convinced would waltz to Derby glory just three weeks ago – is now drifting in the betting markets like a tourist who's lost his way at Epsom. We're talking 11-1 on Betfair Exchange. Eleven to bloody one! For a horse that was sitting pretty as the winter book favourite since last autumn.
Meanwhile, his stablemate Delacroix is getting backed like he's got rocket fuel in his oats. The bookies can't lay him fast enough.
That Dante Run Still Haunts Everyone
Look, I watched The Lion In Winter's comeback at York in the Dante. It wasn't pretty. The horse looked like he'd forgotten how to race after 267 days off – keen as mustard, pulling Ryan Moore's arms out, basically doing everything except what you want to see from a Derby contender. My mate texted me halfway through: "This looks like a car crash in slow motion."
He wasn't wrong.
Aidan O'Brien keeps insisting it wasn't as bad as it appeared, but the markets don't lie. They rarely do in racing. When punters start jumping ship this close to the big day, there's usually smoke behind the fire.
Ryan Moore's Dilemma (Not Really)
Here's where it gets interesting. O'Brien basically told everyone this week that Moore would "find it difficult not to ride Delacroix" at Epsom. Translation: The Lion In Winter just lost his jockey to the new kid on the block.
Coral's David Stevens has been watching the money flow like a hawk: "Delacroix has been the best-backed Derby contender by far since those comments." The Leopardstown Trial winner is now odds-on favourite with most firms – 15-8 with Betfred, who are sponsoring the whole circus.
Poor Lion In Winter. From hero to zero in the space of one disappointing gallop.
Why Delacroix Makes Sense
Two wins from two starts this season, both impressive. The horse handles the trip (1m4f is no joke), and unlike his stablemate, he hasn't shown any signs of ring rust or temperament issues. Sometimes the obvious choice becomes obvious for good reason.
The Leopardstown form looks solid too – not spectacular, but workmanlike and progressive. Exactly what you want heading into a £1.5million showdown next Saturday.
The Ballydoyle Curse Strikes Again?
This whole situation reminds me of Kyprios getting retired just weeks before his Royal Ascot hat-trick attempt. Sometimes the racing gods have a cruel sense of timing. O'Brien's had a tough spring – losing his star stayer, watching his Derby favourite implode, and now having to reshuffle his Epsom plans with a week to go.
But here's the thing about Aidan O'Brien: the man has won this race eight times. Eight! If anyone can pull a rabbit out of the hat with a late switch, it's him.
The markets are telling their story loud and clear. Question is: are we listening to wisdom or panic?
Next Saturday will tell us everything we need to know.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do handicaps work for horse racing?
In horse racing, handicapping is used to equalize the field and give each horse a fair chance of winning. Horses receive different weights according to their past performance, and the better horses are given more weight. This system is designed to balance the competition and is a critical aspect to understand for those betting on races.
What are the major horse racing events?
Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing - the Kentucky Derby Stakes, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes - is one of horse racing's most prestigious events. Dubai World Cup and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe are among the most prestigious races in the world. Royal Ascot is held in the United Kingdom. These prestigious competitions attract the finest riders, trainers, or horses in the world.
What is the significance of the horse's bloodline in racing?
The bloodline indicates the inherited characteristics passed down by its ancestors. This may include speed and stamina. Breeders refer to the pedigree of a racehorse when predicting a horse’s potential. They match stallions appropriately with mares so that offspring have desirable characteristics.
How do betting odds work in horse racing?
In horse racing odds represent the probability of an outcome. They are typically presented in the format of fractions or decimals and can indicate how much profit a bettor might gain on a winning bet. Odds can fluctuate based on the amount of money wagered on each horse and can vary up until the race begins. These changes will be monitored by a seasoned gambler to make informed decisions.
What are the factors that influence a horse race's outcome?
Many variables impact the result of a horse race, including the horse's physical condition, breeding, and training. Additionally, jockey experience and skills, track conditions, weight, and distance are all important factors. Weather also plays a role in horse performance, with some horses performing better than others on certain surfaces.
Statistics
- There are over 9.2 million horses in the United States, with a significant portion of these bred for the purpose of racing.
- Horse racing is known to support roughly 1.4 million full-time jobs in the United States alone.
- Australia hosts more than 19,000 horse races annually, making it home to one of the busiest racing calendars globally.
- The Kentucky Derby, one of the most watched horse racing events, has attracted over 150,000 spectators in a single event.
- The average racing career of a Thoroughbred horse spans approximately three to four years, after which many pursue breeding or other equestrian activities.
External Links
How To
How To Bet Online on Horse Racing
It's important to choose a betting platform that is secure, licensed and reputable before you begin betting online. Create an account and deposit funds. Familiarize yourself with site features and layout. Study the races available, reviewing the odds, horse information, and any tips provided. Select the race that you would like to bet on, and then decide which type of wager to place. Simple win bets are available as well as more complex wagers including exactas or Pick Six. Enter your wager, confirm the amount and submit it. On most platforms, you can follow results in real time and withdraw winnings via approved methods.
Did you miss our previous article...
https://sportingexcitement.com/horse-racing/the-comeback-nobody-saw-coming-greg-fairleys-wild-journey-back-from-racings-biggest-scandal
CricketBoxingFormula 1GolfHorse RacingPremier LeagueTennisDartsPrivacy PolicyTerms And Conditions
