Why I'm Backing a 2,000 Guineas Winner to Demolish the Field at 6 Furlongs

By Lewis Barnett 11 July, 2025 6 mins read 163 Views

Listen, I've been staring at this Saturday card for three days straight, and I keep coming back to the same conclusion.

Notable Speech is about to school everyone in the July Cup – and honestly, I think we're all missing something obvious here. The guy's been running over a mile his entire career, sure. Ten starts, all at the same trip. Won the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, took the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, even grabbed third in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Decent resume, right?

But here's what's been bugging me since Tuesday: what if his class has been masking his real weapon this whole time?

Play the Audio Version

The Frankel Theory (Bear With Me Here)

Think about it like this – and I know this sounds mental – but Frankel could've beaten a 70-rated handicapper over 2 miles or smashed a 70-rated sprinter over 5 furlongs. His class was just that ridiculous. We know he was best at a mile to 1m2f, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have destroyed lesser horses at other trips.

Same principle applies here. Notable Speech has been competing with elite milers because that's where Charlie Appleby put him. Doesn't mean the horse wouldn't be even more devastating over 6 furlongs.

The pedigree screams speed, by the way. Invincible Spirit won the Haydock Park Sprint, and there's Pivotal in the mix too – that stallion gets fast horses like nobody's business.

£36,000 Says They're Confident

Here's the kicker: they supplemented him for thirty-six grand. That's not pocket change, even for Godolphin. You don't drop that kind of money unless you're pretty damn sure about something.

And before anyone starts moaning about milers not handling the drop in trip... Chief Singer and Green Desert both placed in 2,000 Guineas before winning this exact race. Alcohol Free banged in the Sussex Stakes and Coronation before taking the 2022 July Cup. Dream Ahead went from the St James's Palace Stakes straight to this event.

The precedent is there. We're just not paying attention.

What About the Rest of This Circus?

Flora Of Bermuda finished third to Lazzat in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot – she's improving for Wathnan and could be dangerous. Whistlejacket was sixth in the Commonwealth Cup but he's been backed down from much bigger prices, so someone knows something. Won the July Stakes over course and distance last season, though that was on good to soft.

Inisherin has the ability but was only fifth last year when sent off 11-8 favourite. That stings.

Believing was poor at Royal Ascot from a terrible draw, and Jasour might be the best of the outsiders if you're looking for value.

But honestly? I think Notable Speech is just better than all of them. The draw looks good, the trip will suit, and his class should shine through.

The Double That Could Pay for Christmas

Now here's where it gets interesting. More Thunder is running in the Bunbury Cup over 7 furlongs, and I reckon he's been crying out for this extra furlong.

Tom Marquand called his Ascot defeat "disgusting" after finishing second in the Wokingham over 6 furlongs. But look at his record – two Newmarket successes over 6f, then that unlucky second at Royal Ascot. What if those 6f victories came from pure class, just like I'm arguing with Notable Speech?

Sir Michael Stoute ran this horse up to 1m2f last season. He won his novice over 1m2f. Seven furlongs should be perfect for him, and he might just be a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper off a mark of 98.

If both horses win... well, that's where the 23-1 double comes in. And frankly, I think both are better than their odds suggest.

One More Thing

See That Storm in the John Smith's Cup at York looks interesting too. Goes for Ed Bethell and Callum Rodriguez, lightly raced at four with just nine starts. Finished second to Burrito over a bit further at York last time off a mark of 95 – same mark here.

He's thrived since moving from Andrew Balding's yard, and this distance looks ideal. Reasonable draw, too.

Saturday's going to be mental – ITV are showing twelve races, which is just excessive if you ask me. But sometimes the best opportunities come when everyone's overwhelmed by choice.

I'm sticking with my guns here. Notable Speech is the best horse in the July Cup, More Thunder wants the extra furlong, and if they both deliver...

Well, let's just say it'll be a Saturday worth remembering.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the initial step to training a racing horse?

In the initial training phase, the racehorse must undergo a crucial stage called "breaking," during which the horse is accustomed to the saddle, the bridle and the weight carried by the rider. During these sessions, patience is key to ensuring the horse feels comfortable around humans and with the equipment they will use throughout their racing career.

How often should racehorses be trained?

Racehorses are trained according to their individual needs, fitness levels, and race schedule. In general, racehorses will have a daily exercise routine that includes walking, trotting, or cantering. This is followed by more demanding work, like galloping or breezing at least three times a weekly, to improve stamina. Rest days allow the horse time to recover from training and to avoid overtraining.

How do you maintain a racehorse's mental well-being?

Maintenance of a racehorse's mental health is as crucial as its physical conditioning. Racehorses' psychological well-being is enhanced by varied routines and mental stimulation. To prevent stress, it is important that the horse be socialized and has a stable and calm environment.

Can you train your racehorse anywhere?

Although the horse can train on various tracks initially, specific racing training requires facilities which simulate the conditions that the horse is likely to face in competition. This includes regulation-sized tracks with the same type of surface the horse will race on. It is important to use the right track in order to condition the horse correctly and familiarize them with the particular racing environment.

What kind of diet is best for a racing horse?

Racehorses need a diet that is high quality and perfectly balanced to support their training and racing. It usually includes a combination high-quality hays, grains (such as oats or barsley) and commercially made feeds for racehorses. In order to ensure peak performance, it is important that the diet be supplemented with vitamins and minerals.

When should a horse begin training for racing?

While horses can begin basic race training as young yearlings (or even younger), most start their more intensive training when they reach two years of age. The horses' bodies will be mature enough to withstand the strain of racing, while still young and adaptable. However, the exact timing may vary depending on the individual horse's development and temperament.

Statistics

Racehorse mortality rates during racing have been observed to be between 1.5 to 2 deaths per thousand starts, depending on the racing jurisdiction.
Gastrointestinal issues affect up to 90% of racehorses during their training, emphasizing the need for careful dietary management.
The average racehorse reaches its peak physical ability between the ages of four to five, with some variation based on the breed and individual development.
Approximately 70% of a racehorse's diet consists of forage, with the remainder made up of grains and supplements to meet their high-calorie needs.
Studies suggest that proper early training can reduce the risk of musculoskeletal injuries in racehorses by up to 50%.
The average cost to train a thoroughbred racehorse for one year can exceed $50,000, accounting for expenses related to training, boarding, and veterinary care.

External Links

How To

How to Prepare Your Racehorse For a Specific Track Surface

Acclimate the racehorse by gradually incorporating exercises on this type of footing. If you are transitioning from a natural track to a synthetic one, for example, expose the horse to different textures and responses through repeated training sessions. This will allow for a better stride, and the development of muscle groups. Assess the horse's comfort and response to the new surface and adjust training intensity accordingly.

Did you miss our previous article...
https://sportingexcitement.com/horse-racing/two-million-down-the-drain-when-racing-dreams-turn-into-nightmares