Listen, I've been staring at this Oaks field for three days straight and I keep coming back to the same conclusion.
Everyone's obsessing over Desert Flower at short odds, but there's a filly in here that's being completely overlooked. More on that in a minute - first, let me walk you through what I'm seeing in this £570,000 puzzle at Epsom.
Nine three-year-old fillies. One and a half miles. And honestly? The betting public has got this one wrong.
The Obvious Choice (That Might Not Be So Obvious)
DESERT FLOWER ★★★★☆
Charlie Appleby's golden girl hasn't lost in five tries. Won the 1,000 Guineas like she was out for a morning hack. Took the Fillies' Mile by five lengths last year.
But here's the thing that's been bugging me - and I feel stupid for not seeing it earlier - her breeding screams "miler" louder than a punter who's just backed four losers. The soft ground we're getting? That plays right into the hands of a proper stayer.
William Buick knows what he's doing though. Can't argue with that.
My Sneaky Pick (The One Everyone's Missing)
ELWATEEN ★★★★★
God, where do I even start with this one.
Saeed Bin Suroor's filly has only run twice. Won on debut at Kempton, then finished fourth in the Guineas - but watch that race again. She was doing her best work late, looking like she wanted more ground.
Her dam stayed a mile and a quarter strongly in soft conditions. The supplementary entry fee tells you connections fancy their chances. And Saeed? People forget he's won this race twice before.
At these odds, she's practically giving money away.
The Ballydoyle Battalion
GISELLE ★★★☆☆
Won her Lingfield trial by nine lengths against admittedly weak opposition. But nine lengths is nine lengths, right? Aidan's fillies always improve for these big occasions.
MINNIE HAUK ★★★☆☆
Ryan Moore's choice of the O'Brien trio. Won at Chester with plenty in hand - and if you can handle Chester's quirks, Epsom shouldn't faze you. My mate texted me yesterday: "Moore doesn't pick losers in Classics." Hard to argue.
WHIRL ★★★★☆
Actually might be the best of the three. Demolished them in the Musidora at York, had loads left at the line. The Musidora has been a decent Oaks pointer over the years.
The Rest (AKA The Also-Rans)
REVOIR ★★★☆☆
Ralph Beckett's filly just got nabbed at Newbury by Qilin Queen. Came home strongly though - might appreciate the step up in trip. Beckett's horses often improve dramatically second time out.
QILIN QUEEN ★★☆☆☆
Beat Revoir on the nod last time but looked to be hanging on. Ed Walker's done well with her but this feels like a bridge too far.
GO GO BOOTS ★★☆☆☆
Third in the Musidora but looked all over the place in the closing stages. Oisin Murphy riding for the Gosdens suggests they think she's got a chance, but I'm not convinced. Save her for the Ribblesdale at Ascot.
WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY ★★☆☆☆
Won a Group 3 at Navan in the mud. If it's genuinely soft on Friday, add a star. Otherwise, she's got too much to find.
The Bet That's Going to Make (or Break) My Weekend
I'm putting my money where my mouth is: ELWATEEN to win at 4pm Friday.
She's the value play everyone's missing. Jim Crowley gets on well with the Godolphin second string, she's bred for this trip, and that Guineas run was much better than it looked on paper.
Desert Flower will probably start favorite and might well win - her class is undeniable. But if she doesn't stay, we'll all look back at this race and wonder how we missed the signs.
My full prediction:
1st: Elwateen
2nd: Desert Flower
3rd: Whirl
The action kicks off at 4pm on ITV1. Don't say I didn't warn you when Elwateen comes home in front at decent odds.
Remember to gamble responsibly
Look, I get carried away with these big races sometimes, but please:
- Set limits before you start
- Only bet what you can afford to lose
- Never chase losses
- Don't bet when you're emotional
- Gamcare - www.gamcare.org.uk
- Gamble Aware - www.gambleaware.org
Find detailed guidance on responsible gambling practices if you need help.
Frequently Asked Questions
How important is the pedigree of a racehorse for success?
The pedigree of a racing horse can indicate its potential, but it isn't the only thing that determines their success. The lineage of a horse may indicate an inherited ability for speed or endurance. However, training, health and temperament can also be influential factors. Training can enhance a horse’s natural abilities, and allow it to perform better than horses with more impressive pedigrees.
What is the role of the jockey when training a racehorse?
Racehorses are trained by jockeys, who play an important role. Jockeys not only provide feedback to the horses on their performance during training, but they also educate the horses about racing tactics such as pacing and positioning. Good jockeys are able to identify the strengths and weaknesses of their horses, which is essential for race preparation.
Is it necessary for a racehorse to have a specific type of shoe?
Racing plates are typically lighter and thinner compared to regular horseshoes. These plates reduce weight and provide traction at the racetrack. A racehorse-trained farrier will fit and select the right shoes for each horse based on its hoof shape and the racing surface.
Can you race a horse on any track?
Although initial training can be done on any track, race-specific training is often required in facilities that mimic the conditions the horse may face during competition. The horse must be trained on a track that is the same size and has the same surface as the racetrack. The correct track will help condition your horse and give them the experience they need in that racing environment.
There are different race training methods available for different horse types.
As breed characteristics and race distances vary, so can the training methods for horses. Thoroughbreds which are associated with long distance flat racing undergo different training to Quarter Horses which specialize in sprinting over short distances. Each breed is unique and requires a different approach to match their physical characteristics and behaviors.
When can a horse be expected to start racing training?
Horses may begin their basic training as yearlings but they will usually begin more rigorous racing training and conditioning at around two years. It is at this age that their bodies are ready to take on the demands of the racetrack, yet still young and flexible enough to adapt. The exact timing can vary depending on each horse's temperament and development.
Statistics
- Gastrointestinal issues affect up to 90% of racehorses during their training, emphasizing the need for careful dietary management.
- Statistically, less than 1% of thoroughbred foals born each year will go on to win a stakes race.
- Around 80% of thoroughbred racehorses begin their racing careers by the age of two, according to industry estimates.
- Studies suggest that proper early training can reduce the risk of musculoskeletal injuries in racehorses by up to 50%.
- Racehorse mortality rates during racing have been observed to be between 1.5 to 2 deaths per thousand starts, depending on the racing jurisdiction.
- The average racehorse reaches its peak physical ability between the ages of four to five, with some variation based on the breed and individual development.
External Links
How To
How to Create an Effective Racehorse Training Schedule
The best training schedules for racehorses should balance intense exercise with rest. Mix up your workouts by incorporating a mixture of walking, galloping and breezing throughout the week. This will help you build fitness. Establish rest days for the purpose of muscle repair and mental recovery. Season training cycles according to the racing calendar of the horse, tapering before a big race.
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